Replace DC Metrorail with Buses Only?
by David Swink, 02/18/2024
Ever wonder whether the DC Metro area would be better served if a comprehensive bus transit system were in place rather than the extremely expensive (and bankrupt) "light rail" system in place for the DC Metro area? Here is a brief analysis of three other metro areas -- all or mostly bus-only -- with population size, annual transit operational costs, and cost-of-living figures. By scaling the figures from each of these three jurisdictions, we can speculate as to how much a bus-only alternative to DC's Metrorail would cost.
Internet-obtained 2023 figures for DC Metrorail and the three bus-only jurisdictions:
DC metro area: 2023 population = 5,490,000; 2023 Metrorail mass transit operational cost = $3 billion; cost-of-living = 53% greater than the national average.
Kansas City metro area: 2023 population = 1,725,000; 2023 bus-only mass transit operational cost = $160 million; cost-of-living = 2.5% lower than the national average.
St Louis metro area: 2023 population = 2,230,000; 2023 bus-mostly mass transit operational cost = $311 million; cost-of-living = 13% lower than the national average.
Richmond metro area: 2023 population = 1,140,000; 2023 bus-only mass transit operational cost = $215.1 million; cost-of-living = 3% lower than the national average.
So mass transit dollar costs for those other three jurisdictions is a fraction of DC's Metrorail costs. And if we adjust the costs of each for DC's greater population size and cost-of-living, we get: $799 million (Kansas City); $1.270 billion (St Louis); and $1.615 billion (Richmond) -- for an average figure of $1.228 billion, 41% of the cost of DC Metrorail!
Conclusion: While the figures as quoted above might be factored differently by transportation experts, it's likely that if DC Metrorail were to be simply shut down completely and replaced with a comprehensive bus system for the DC metro area, total operational (and taxpayer) costs would be significantly less -- even if the bus fares were free. The issue should definitely have been explored years ago, before the current Metrorail expansion and before commercial and residential patterns around the system were firmly established.