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TPP Timeline 2016-2017

• The Board approved over $1.4B in Transportation Priorities Plan (TPP) funds (FY15-20) in Jan 2014.
• Some projects were only partially funded in TPP at this time, because all funding was not needed during the six-year period.
• TPP Update process initiated in Fall 2016.
  • Continue the County's transportation priorities (e.g. Comp Plan implementation, congestion reduction, multimodal solutions, economic success plan, etc).
  • Evaluate potential new projects based on several selection criteria, including a Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA); support for major activity center, schools, parks and disadvantaged populations; public input; and input from the TAC and others.
• Use all revenues sources to meet the needs of these projects.
• Assist the Board in selecting transportation priorities from FY18-23.
• Individual Board member meetings in Jun 2017.
• Board Transportation Committee (BTC) and Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) briefed in Jul 2017.
• Outreach conducted in Sep-Nov 2017.
• Additional Board member meetings Winter 2017-January 2018.
• Fall 2017 the was Board Transportation Committee (BTC) notified of:
  • Updated cost estimates and timelines for current projects.
  • Over $600M in new revenues (FY21-23) needed for full funding of existing projects.
  • $70M set aside for reserves.
  • $100M in funding available for new projects.
• In Dec 2017, VA Governor’s proposal to address WMATA funding transferred substantial regional funding from NVTA.
  • Due to proposal, staff delayed presenting TPP recommendations pending the 2018 General Assembly (GA) session.

TPP Timeline 2018

• In Spring 2018, the GA adopted HB 1539 (Hugo) / SB 856 (Saslaw), which included $154M per year for WMATA to address WMATA’s state of good repair needs.
  • $102M of the $154M was diverted annually from existing local and regional sources.
  • The financial impact of this legislation on the TPP is approximately $45-50M per year or $300M over six years.
• In Jul 2018, staff notified the BTC that there will be no available revenue for new projects, and project schedules would likely be adjusted.

Funding Status May 2018 (over six years) $100M Available for New Projects ($300M) Diverted NVTA Funds ($200M) Projected Six-Year Shortfall

Project Costs - Factors that increase cost estimates

• Numerous large-scale projects underway in the region:
  • I-66 Inside/Outside the Beltway
  • Dulles Rail Phase 2
  • I-395 Extension
  • Route 7 Widening
  • Purple Line
  • Capital Crossing
  • Frederick Douglas Bridge
  • Arlington Memorial Bridge
• Market demand causing shortage of labor/materials.
  • Availability of asphalt (can’t be shipped, must arrive hot)
• Economic factors (e.g. tariffs on steel).
• VDOT increasing contingencies on project estimates to account for fluctuations.

Consequences of Revenue Reductions and Cost Increases

• No funding for new projects due to impacts of WMATA funding bill and increases on existing project cost estimates.
• Schedules for some existing TPP projects (both large and small) will be extended, many beyond FY25.
• No previously approved projects being cancelled, unless otherwise discussed with the Board.

Funding Outlook – Summer 2019

• All new revenue (FY19-25) assumed to cover existing projects:
  • Projects proposed to advance, and partially funded between FY15-20 receive the remainder of necessary funding.
• Consider set aside for reserves and unanticipated needs.
  • Needed to handle increasing cost estimates.
• NVTA has issued Call for Projects for FY20-25 Program.
  • Project submissions due September 27, 2019.
• Need to explore with NVTA possibilities of project scope reductions; reallocating regional funds to other NVTA approved projects.
• HB 2718/SB 1716 (2019; I-81 Bill) provides approximately $100M to NVTA for FY20-25. Fairfax County expected to benefit from is approximately $8M/year.

$3.16B included for capital and operating transportation projects for FY19-25. Funding Sources* Approximate Proposed Funding ($000,000) Carryover/Previous Allocations** 583 Local 1,018 Federal 313 Private 185 Regional 738 State 330 Total $3,167 * Does not include Dulles Rail (Phases 1 or 2) or Route 28 Tax Districts. ** Includes funds allocated to projects that may not be expended to date.

Proposed Distribution of Funds

Project Category Approximate Proposed Percent of Total Funding ($000,000) Distribution Widenings 1,195.0 37.7% Extensions (new facilities) 341.0 10.8% Interchanges 88.0 2.8% Spot 174.0 5.5% Bicycle/Pedestrian 269.0 8.5% Transit Capital 612.0 19.3% Transit Operating 265.0 8.4% Debt Service/Loan Payments 81.0 2.6% BOS Discretionary 0.7 0.0% Project Support 78.0 2.5% Studies 8.0 0.3% Construction Reserve 56.0 1.8% Total $3,167.7

• The total TPP through FY25 is $3.58B.
• To reduce this cost $3.16B, $416.1M is proposed to be deferred.

Next Steps

• Board action on proposed TPP.
• Board should continue to include the importance of restoring the funds diverted by HB 1539/SB 856 as a legislative priority in its 2020 Legislative Program.

Questions/Discussion